Canada Just Lost 103,000 People. Here’s Why I’ve Never Been More Focused.
Growing up on the prairies, there was exactly one hour a day my mom got any peace.
The Sesame Street hour.
Little Russell, glued to the screen, finally quiet. If you asked her, she’d tell you that hour was sacred. Her coffee. Her nap. Her sanity.
And buried inside that show was a song I haven’t been able to shake for decades:
One of these things is not like the other…
Sorry. It’s in your head now too. You’re welcome.
Here’s the thing. That little song turned out to be the most useful piece of market analysis training I ever received. Because when I pulled the latest Statistics Canada quarterly numbers, end of Q1 2026, that’s exactly what I saw.
The Numbers Nobody Wants to Say Out Loud
Ontario. Declining.
British Columbia. Declining.
Quebec. Declining.
And nationally? Canada’s population dropped roughly 103,000 people year over year. One of the largest declines in recent memory. The immigration pendulum swung from way too far open to nearly shut, and the headlines have been grim ever since.
But one of these things is not like the other.
Alberta grew. About 7,280 people in a single quarter, while the rest of the country contracted. Saskatchewan posted positive interprovincial migration too. The prairies are quietly winning.
Drill down one more level. Edmonton was the number one destination in Canada for interprovincial migration. Not top five. Number one. Combine Edmonton and Calgary, and Alberta’s two major metros gained almost 24,000 people in a single year.
National. Provincial. Metro. Three levels of data. One direction.
Now Think About What That Actually Means
At a point in the cycle when immigration dried up to nearly nothing… when Canada’s total population went BACKWARDS… people still packed up their lives and chose Alberta.
No tailwind. No immigration boost inflating the number. That is organic demand, standing on its own legs.
Now ask yourself the question I keep asking: what happens when the pendulum swings back to even mildly normal?
That number doesn’t shrink. It compounds.
And here’s the tease for an upcoming chapter of this research series: roughly 750,000 more people are forecasted to move into Edmonton over the next 15 to 20 years. Everyone pointing at recent housing starts yelling “oversupply” hasn’t overlaid those starts against the population forecast yet. When you do, the recent pace of building doesn’t look unsustainable. It looks like the new minimum, for a decade, just to keep up.
The Trap That’s Costing Investors Real Money
Here’s the pattern I see constantly, and it has a name now.
The national comparison trap.
An investor reads the national headline. Population down. Prices flat. So they extrapolate that across every market in the country and sit on their hands. Or worse, they keep holding assets in markets that are bleeding people, because selling feels like admitting something.
I get it. I’ve held on too long before too. Hoping is easier than moving.
But the national average is not a market. Nobody lives in the national average. People live in Edmonton, in Barrie, in Surrey, in Trois-Rivières. And right now those people are voting with moving trucks.
So the question was never “is Canadian real estate good right now?”
The question is: where are the people moving, and where is housing struggling to keep up?
Two very different questions. Two very different answers.
One More Unpopular Opinion While I’m Here
I don’t want property values to skyrocket.
I know. Sacrilege. But a market that runs up too fast comes down fast, and some Canadian markets are living that correction right now, still hunting for a bottom.
An affordable market is a healthy market. It’s healthy for the community, healthy for demand, and it’s the single best indicator of longevity for your portfolio. What I’m seeing in Edmonton is steady, affordable, and supported by real population growth. Boring on the surface.
Boring on the surface is exactly what a 30-year investor wants underneath.
My read on where we are: this is a breather. A plateau before the next run. The data is telling that story at every level I look.
Do This Tonight
Not next quarter. Tonight.
- Pull the StatCan quarterly population data. It’s free and public. Twenty minutes.
- Run it at three levels. National, provincial, metro. When all three point the same direction, that’s conviction. When they diverge, that’s where the insight lives.
- Grade your own portfolio against the flow. Write down where each property sits. Are people moving toward it, or away from it? Be honest on paper.
- Ask the restructure question. If demand has left a market you’re holding, what is keeping you there besides history? Some of the most valuable work I’ve done with clients lately is exactly this: taking chips off the table in BC and Ontario and redeploying where the lights are green.
That’s the work. Simple, but not easy.
This Is Chapter Two
If you missed Chapter 1, that’s where this series started: Moving Trucks Don’t Read Headlines, the GDP story underneath the recession noise. Population is the next layer down. Still ahead: the supply pipeline deep dive, rental trends, affordability, and the housing inventory numbers that genuinely surprised me… and I’m in this market every single day.
Chapter 2 is live now. Watch it here:
And make sure you’re subscribed to the channel so you don’t miss the next chapter.
Not Sure What Your Next Step Is?
If you look at all of this and you’re still wrestling with what the right move is for YOU… I’m here to help. Coming on 30 years of experience, every market condition you can imagine, and a private, judgment-free conversation about your portfolio and your next three steps.
Follow the people. They’ll show you where the opportunity is.
I believe in you. Now go pull the numbers.
In your corner,
Russell Westcott
#Inspire # Encourage #Love
