Real deals. Real numbers. The mistakes I paid for in cash.
Most real estate content is written by people who have read about real estate.
This is not that. Everything on this page comes off a deal I own, a deal I consulted on, or a mistake that cost me money I would rather have kept. Twenty six years. Condos, townhomes, single family, apartment buildings, infill development, new construction, new subdivisions.
Some weeks it is a financing structure broken down to the dollar. Some weeks it is a market I think everybody is reading wrong. Some weeks it is something I got badly wrong in 2004 and still think about.
New post most weeks. No hype. No theory. If a claim shows up here without a number attached to it, I have not done my job.
Everything is below, newest first. Dig in.
Fantasy Island Pricing
Nobody asks if you should build. Only how. I can still get hypnotized by a number. Twenty-six years in, and a clean appraisal on a nice PDF still tugs at me for half a second. Big number. Bold font. A discount off the top, just for me. The number wants to be believed....
What Were They Saying in 2021?
The crystal ball is broken. For everyone, mine included. So the real skill was never the real estate forecast... it's what you do with all of them. Let me tell you who's actually talking, because it should change how you hear this. I'm not a pundit. I'm an investor...
Drug Along The Bottom
Rock bottom doesn’t bounce you. It drags you. Holding is allowed. Hiding is not. Here’s the honest checkup that tells you whether to hold, sell, or prune.
The Thing That Kills You Doesn’t Knock
It started in January with a sore calf. Five months later, a doctor found blood clots in my lungs. Here’s what almost dying taught me about the quiet problems we keep ignoring.
We Trained Them To Leave. We Forgot To Make Them Want To Stay
The Leaving Problem · Part 2 of 2. The exit tax is the wrong tool. Here's the one lever you actually control... and the rule I hold myself to every time I coach. In Part 1, I told you about one of my clients walking his capital, his team, and his projects across the...
You Can’t Tax Your Way Out Of A Leaving Problem
The Leaving Problem · Part 1 of 2. One of my clients moved his whole operation south. The opportunity wasn't the problem. That should stop all of us cold. One of my clients recently moved his entire investing operation to the United States. Capital. Plans. Ambition....
Calgary Gets the Love. Edmonton Gets the Math.
The 2026 Alberta Verdict for Canadian Real Estate Investors Here’s an embarrassing confession. The best performing analysis I’ve ever published was my Calgary vs Edmonton breakdown. People shared it, quoted it, built decisions on it. And then I let it sit for four...
Nobody’s Calling Unit 1402
Part 2 of 2. They cut a deal for the developer. They'll cushion the bank. But the couple who did everything right and bought the unit? Nobody is dialing their number. Last piece I told you everybody grabbed the blame thrower and aimed it at the developer. I made the...
One Name On The Building. A Dozen Hands On The Price.
Part 1 of 2. Everybody reached for the blame thrower when Carney and Eby announced the $3.2 billion condo deal. I reached for it too. I saw the headline and my first reaction was the same as yours. Bailout. No way. Markets should clear. Let the speculators eat the...
The Lazy Number
Everyone Reports the Unemployment Rate. Almost Nobody Reads the Four Numbers Underneath It. Let me climb up on my soapbox for a minute. Every month the job numbers drop, and every month the same thing happens. The Globe and Mail, the Financial Post, the CBC… every...
One of These Things Is Not Like the Other
Canada Just Lost 103,000 People. Here's Why I've Never Been More Focused. Growing up on the prairies, there was exactly one hour a day my mom got any peace. The Sesame Street hour. Little Russell, glued to the screen, finally quiet. If you asked her, she'd tell you...
Moving Trucks Don’t Read Headlines
Canada Just Entered a Recession. I Just Got More Bullish. Stay with me here... Three negative quarters. The R word is now official. The political footballs are flying in every direction. And everybody you talk to is doing one of three things... justifying it,...
